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Given how fast technology changes and how quickly it's adopted globally, should we be surprised to hear that smartphone shipments have outpaced PCs? It's one of those things written on tech-evolution walls, isn't it?
Even if it was anticipated, and obvious, I have to say I was a bit sad reading the news… Well, perhaps, nostaglic would be a better word.
Recently, research firm {complink 7236|Canalys.com Ltd.} reported the crossover happened in 2011. Even with hyped-up tablet-type device shipments included, sexy smartphones took a noticeable lead over their rather passé computing hardware brothers. You can find all the charts and stats here, but this is the top-level take-away:
- Vendors shipped 158.5 million smart phones in Q4 2011, up 57% on the 101.2 million units shipped in Q4 2010. This bumper quarter took total global shipments for the whole of 2011 to 487.7 million units, up 63% on the 299.7 million smart phones shipped throughout 2010. By comparison, the global client PC market grew 15% in 2011 to 414.6 million units, with 274% growth in pad shipments. Pads accounted for 15% of all client PC shipments in 2011.
Although 2012 may take some of the “Wow” factor out of smartphones and slow the runaway sales uptick as smartphones become more commonplace, Canalys VP Chris Jones believes this was a significant development. He said further about last year's market dynamics:
- In 2011 we saw a fall in demand for netbooks, and slowing demand for notebooks and desktops as a direct result of rising interest in pads… But pads have had negligible impact on smart phone volumes and markets across the globe have seen persistent and substantial growth through 2011.
Smart phone shipments overtaking those of client PCs should be seen as a significant milestone. In the space of a few years, smart phones have grown from being a niche product segment at the high-end of the mobile phone market to becoming a truly mass-market proposition. The greater availability of smart phones at lower price points has helped tremendously, but there has been a driving trend of increasing consumer appetite for Internet browsing, content consumption and engaging with apps and services on mobile devices.
After I read the above statement, I immediately patted my laptop and said, “Don't worry, I still love you.” Call me old-fashioned, but it's kind of sad to see a significant milestone like this come to pass. It's likely for the foreseeable future that many people — myself included — will still need and use both computing and mobile platforms and will continue to buy both tools. However, it's possible we're stepping closer to the end of the PC era. I think that deserves a moment of reflection.
I was in fifth grade in 1981 when I first laid hands on a computer keyboard. I didn't realize then what a life-changing moment it was. But, I'm grateful for the power — and eventually, mobility — the computer age put in my hands. It's been a good run.
That said, I guess it doesn't really matter anymore if we call the tools that make our lives run smoother and more efficiently PCs, Macs, smartphones, netbooks, or tablets. It's the technology horsepower under the hood we've all come to love.
Jenn–was I glad to read this blog! I have the same reaction as you: patting my PC and reassuring it that it is still No. 1. And I know you are younger than me. I've decided that it is not really the technology of smartphones (or anything else) that is keeping me from going all in and buying Samsung's Note. It is what I use my various devices for. I still like my full-size keyboard and 17-inch screen. Mobility and always-on communication is great, but when it comes to work, my PC still rules.
The comfort that you get when you start using your desktop is tremendous, I feel they aid us complete work fast . Whatever hi tech device I use at the end feel so awesome once I am staring at my pc.
I have the same feelings as you about the PC era, and I don't believe will see an end. The tremendous success of the tables in sales can be explained with the following phrase “The greater availability of smart phones at lower price points has helped tremendously,” .
And it is very logical to have more sales of smart phones than pcs, but that fact does not mean that the end of PCs as we know it is coming ….
I agree with you Barbara, reading your comments, I felt something for Pc and I feel while it not completely over for PC, I feel we all need to give our PC a pat in the back for a job well done and how far it has brought us and even prepared us to be able to adjust and blend to the new technology with it. Considering the differences between a typewriter and a desktop, I feel the gap is wider when you compared a PC to the new mobile devices around now. PC still prepared us well and served as a solid foundation for these new devices to buld on.
@Saranyatil, You are right, Pc really gave us lots of space, comfort and the chance of doing so many things together all at the same time
While it seems a lot of devices are doing a lot of what PC can do, the device that would completely put an end to the PC era is not yet in market yet. Non of these new devices can fully perform the same tasks as PC. So lets hope for a development or a modification or an invention of something else apart from other devices we have around now that may end PC era.
Long time ago, I loved to have a desktop PC and laptop was too expensive. Now i just need an ultrabook. Grab it before it is totally replaced by tabs.
I love my desktops with their dual 27 inch monitors. I need to have big monitor to do do good work.
I do not think there is any end to PC but these devices might take a sahpe of all-in-one ocmputers. And I strongly believe the PCs are true work horses.
@ Saranyatii,
The comfort in using desktop is indeed awesome, and its still maintaining great sales for professional use.
@ Adeniji Kayode,
We can only hope to see a device that can replace PC totally, and just as you've said no device around at present can end the era of PC especially at enterprise level.
_hm,
Is it beacuse of multi-tasking? 2 27″ monitors provides alot of screen real estate.
If I had two screens, I wouldn't have to flip back and forth so much, so it would save a bit of time, though it might add an element of distraction.
@Adenikl Kayode – I think you're right about the PC-replacement not being in market yet. We're moving in that direction, but it will depend, I think, more on human behavior changes than actual device.
@_hm — Dual 27-in monitors!! How I would love that… I often feel like the more the industry pushes me towards smaller devices, the more I want to save my eyes and buy a gigantic screen.
Since a few comments have been made about this, let's go a little further: What would the device that truly replaces PCs look like? And what's missing from the latest devices to earn that title? What features are a must-have and which ones are you willing to let go?
Obviously, it has to have computing “horsepower,” be relatively light and very portable. It has to be fast, and, for me, I'd like something durable.
What else?
@Barbara – I hear you. I think for me it comes down to a combinational of pyschological comfort associated with certain devices and the practicality of how many devices I actually want vs need. My laptop is where I work, my tablet is for reading work stuff or magazines away from my laptop, my e-reader is for reading before I go to sleep, and my tiny MP3 is for the gym.I keep a “dumb” feature phone because I'm not fully convinced 24×7 contact and communication is really a good thing, although I'm definitely tipping away from that, not because I want a smartphone, but because I want a high-quality camera that allows me tweet from a cafe.
t.alex – Funny you mention that. I was eyeing a super cheap netbook the other day, thinking it would make a practical travel companion when I'm backpacking to rural, remote places. I need something cheap, something I won't feel bad about if something happens to it; smartphone and tablets feel too fragile for me.
So maybe what we're moving towards is a smartphone-sized device we can use 100 different ways. When we need it as a computer we hook it up to a regular keyboard and giant screens. When we want it as a camera, we pull it out of our pocket.
As much as I don't think the laptops are going anywhere in the near future, there difinitely is a shift away from them. I think the next step is a hand held smartphone that can be utilized like a PC. If you can take this with you like a smartphone, then hook up to a docking station to use a keyboard and a monitor, the PC's will start dissapearing. I know Motorola already has a phone that can be docked, but it needs to dock to a computer. It is not a freestanding device. Either way technology is moving at break neck speeds and the hot new phone today is old news in just a couple of months.
You are right and your comment is with condition too “professional use”
It's hard forseen PC dissapperance at expense of smartphone or tablet PC. I just bought a new PC because am not comfortable with laptop most often. I dont think smartphone can end PC workability. I can only foresee smartphone compete to replace tablet computer.
It does not yet make sense what kind of device may replace PC, the only thing is just that there is hope of a revolution .
PC market is much more mature than the smartphone market and the growth is likely to be slower. Tablet market is eating into PC market as a surfing and gaming replacement but does not really eat into the smartphone market (although I have seen tourists wandering around on vacation taking photos with an IPAD !). I reckon the smartphone market will continue growing like crazy for now versus the PC market.
You are right, Pc is becoming homework machine day by day
Great article, Barbara. I agree with your points. In my opinion, there are too many of these electronics being implemented in new cars. If there are entertainment options installed for passenger use, then sure, go for it. But these electronics should not be accessible by the driver. There are already too many distractions on the road to pay attention to while driving.
Clairvoyant–Originally I was going to point out in the blog that these accessories are not on the passenger side of the car. But then it occurred to me that passengers can use their phone, tablet, laptop etc. without worry, so they would be pointless in the first place. It boggles my mind that there actually seems to be a market for cars with this stuff built in. I tend to keep my cars longer than I keep my phones and other devices, so all of this stuff will be obsolete in a few years anyway. I am sure there will be software upgrades, but still…
Barbara, Wait. Remember what the cockpit of a jet plane looks like with all the buttons and blinking lights? That's going to be your next minivan!
Clairvoyant, The obligations of the driver extends to ensuring distractions are limited to passengers but imagine the angst when you are on a long road trip and the family is enjoying the latest movie while you have to keep both hands on the steering. Not to mention my pesonal pet peeve — the folks who read something online and yell “oh my God.” Drivers won't know what exactly the person is screaming about — another distraction.
It comes down to the driver. OEMs will add whatever they can into vehicles to sell but this doesn't relieve the driver of responsibility behind the wheels.
Bolaji–dashboards are already too complex for me! A family member of mine drives a Beemer and the dashboard tells me I should put the lights on. Still haven't found the light switch in that car. If it is indeed a switch. It could be a button, a touch pad, or require mind control. Yelling “OK then, turn the (bleep) lights on” didn't work. So voice control is overrated as well
Barbara I really enjoyed your article. You make me to realize how much exposed we are while we are driving. And all of those “hand free” technologies may cause you a destruction of your attention. It is obvious the entertainment technologies must be improved considering the safety issues.
Thanks, Nemos. In the US, the legislatures will eventually get involved and there will be laws banning some of these things, but I bet you anything someone will challenge it as censorship or something equally absurd. There have already been too many deaths associated with distracted driving.
Distracted driving is a serious problem that can lead to traffic accidents. But you can't legislate everything because then you would have to demand no conversations in the car at all if some people get distracted by what their passengers are saying. In fact, children can be a major distraction, whether they are fighting with each other or merely making demands of their own, but you hardly make it illegal for parents to ferry their children around in the car.
Ariella, I have heard of people being distracted by events outside of the vehicle. Some movies have portrayed scenes of men driving into objects and other vehicles because they were busy staring at a woman, etc. I confess that as a teenage driver, I once bumped (in heavy traffic) into the car in front of me because of a girl driving on another lane. I learned my lesson. Now, I stare eyes straight ahead!
Quite a confession, Bolaji. You're right that the distraction can even come from events outside the car, whether in the form of another driver or just a billboard that is designed to catch your eye.
Yes, Bolaji, that is a pet peeve of mine as well! It is very startling when a passenger yells something out while driving!
Yes, it is really great to work on big monitors. For my twin children, I also have dual 23 inch monitors and single 24 inch monitors. My wife wonders why I get so many monitors.
@Jennifer: I would again insist big (30ich) ultrasharp monitors (like that of Macs) with powerful graphics card. If they have wireless TV tuner with picture in picture, I can work longer while watching news.
Some distracted driving are worse to impaired driving. It is danger to both distracted driver and other party. Please do not get distracted while driving.
Now many companies are migrating to Laptops too, where work from home options are provided it becomes compulsory.
Exactly Many feel the same.
@Barbara, great post. Its surprising to know that those companies which advice the safety features are themselves providing features which might compromise safety. I feel most of these companies are forced to provide such features because they don't want to be seen as companies which don't adopt innovation.
Quite right Ariella. distraction whilst driving is a serious problem and would be practically impossible to legislate on everything. If the car manufacturers are expanding the gadgets on the dash boards to satisfy the market demand, well it'll happen anyway. The onus is on the car driver and the device user to operate these added gadgets with due care. The point is as drivers we have to take responsibility for our actions or inactions.Whether “hands free or not”, Common sense dictates that it is unsafe and unwise to pick up your calls whilst driving or allow yourself to be distracted by a damsel walking or driving past you or whatever – confession of Bolaji (lol). Yes I agree additional distraction?, hey it's happening anyway – we already have it everywhere, our smartphones, talking in the car etc.
I have heard of people being distracted by events outside of the vehicle.
@Bolaji, true. Many times we get distracted by events outside of the vehicle. One more factor which is the major cause of accidents is when drivers pull out unaware that that there is a car in their blind spot. Blind spot accidents are on the rise and that is the reason companies like Volvo and Mercedes have blind spot cameras that flash a warning onto the car mirror if they detect another vehicle.
The onus is on the car driver and the device user to operate these added gadgets with due care.
@Anna, true onus is on the car driver but that doesn't mean manufacturers should provide more and more features which has the potential to distract the attention of the driver. I think the best solution would be to make driving fully automatic. Driver should have little control over the car, and car should automatically drive towards the destination using the GPS navigation.
You are right on that. every companies want to be on the cutting edge and in the minds of all consumers if possible and so are ready to fix- in what they feel will make more people to go for their products .
whose is to the blame in the case of an accident due to distracted driving as a results of these entertaiment devices- the drive r who put his money on a company's product because he thinks that is the best for him or the company who is trying all effort to be at the top and satisfying it consumers
“As long as something is hands-free, it is considered safe”
Barbara is it right. I don't think so because anything which can divert your attention while driving is not safe. Even its hearing or talking or visualizing or whatever it may be and I think it's not advisable also.
It is a good message _hm; imo, it allow to focus on other point. Once achieved driving licence, it seems most people lose right knowledge of road signs. It is not good, maybe electronics could help people in learning back, no while they are driving, but at home for example, playing a sort of game. What about?
Well, that seems good a solution and will still take some time from now but the perfect driving we hope for can not be left to devices alone, man must and will still be involved one way or the other
Steve jobs said in one of his speech that Ipad is the begining of the end of PC, could this be true at all if several comments on these article still show so much love and need for PC
To me, distraction is part of daily life, we live within it and its so different from one person to the other.what distract you may not distract somebody else, so the point is caution in using all these features in cars, don,t they make life easy some how?
personal discipline and caution may be one othe the best options
Blind spot cameras may not be a bad idea at all, but times you wonder if people make use of their mirrors at all.
Anandvy, I agree that added features might increase distraction whilst driving. I also understand that many of the added features doesn't make sense. Why would I need to access my Facebook from the dash board of a car when It's already in my mobile device.Privately I disagree with some of the features to be added. However, Car makers will always seek ways to innovate and increase their business potential and I think this is one of the move. Afterall it is a demand and supply issue isn't it?
Your suggestion for a fully automatic cars sounds great. However I will still want some sort of control whilst driving.
It would be interesting to see how many of these smart phone owners are also having PCs or Laptops. The results will most likely show that teh smart phones are not replacing PCs in most of the cases buy are replacing the old style mobile phones.
Si I doubt whether more smart phone sales means end of PC era.
I believe that the activities like chatting on internet, texting on mobiles and twitting are all passtime activities that one does when one has time to kill and nobody around.
Why do all these activities when driving. Driving itself is a good passtime and there is nothing more relaxing than enjoying the roadside scenary while cruising on a highway.
Why spoil that joy by trying to multitask with things which you can do during a coffe-break -off the road ?
If the drivers start discouraging the use of such features in the car , the car companies will be automatically be forced to wihdraw such non-sense additions to the car electronics and will focus more on the safety features.
I agree with the fact that some of these devices are not too necessary in a car but viewing this from another angle, what of if you are a police officer and you will one way or the other be in on-time communication with the station and some other information.
Could these devices be making some people to perform better in their professions?
Bolaji–there's another way to ensure you keep your eyes straight ahead when you are driving. It's called marriage 😉
@Barbara that could possibly justify the fact that auto insurance rates tend to be lower for married people than for singles.
Excellent point!
Ultimately most “hands free” devices are still distracting. I have bluetooth setup in my Pilot. While it is great to be able to talk with out the phone in my hand, if you don't have voice dialing, which isn't always accurate, you still have to interact to call somebody. That is distracting. Streaming music can be distracting if you are always changing channels, but not really more distracting then fiddling with the buttons of a regular radio. To access internet options there needs to be safety measures that say these can only be accessed while the vehicle is in park. Otherwise you will have some fool on their morning commute watching Youtube, talking on the phone while trying to drink coffee and avoid smacking into you.
I find it hard to believe that the IPad or any other tablet is going to signify the end of the PC. Yes, it is going to eat into sales of PC's. One draw back to the Ipad or any other tablet is no disk drive. I still buy CD's and to upload my music i need a CD/DVD player, unlike other people I don't buy all of my music from Itunes which is what Jobs would love.
There is only disadvantages more than any use if these cars are equipped with all this electronic infotainment and advanced control features compared to the present day cars. But at the same time the automobile companies just manufacture what the consumer wants. They are trying to push the technology to more higher level and make the business more profitable.
Adeniji
Professionals like police have been using high tech communication equipment in their vehicles ages before these new developments in consumer cars came in.
Their drivers are specially trained to handle this equipment while driving (sometimes at much faster speeds to catch the culprits.
We are here talking about the ordinary drivers who can get easily carried away by such distractions and become prone to accidents
I agree with you, I cited that example to really creat a picture. Don,t you think we have professionals that require access to information such as the police due to the nature of their work.
I still feel everything boils down to the drivers and not the company,
The question is do you think or expect our cars to go less sophisticated or more equipped with automated features?
You made a good point Jay_Bond, I agree with you on that. If the use of these devices could be limited to when the car is not in motion will be a good idea. That is the driver will have to park to use them.
@ Adeniji, exactly. It used to be that if you installed aftermarket radios that played dvd's, they wouldn't play while you were driving because it would distract the driver. Now it seems like they assume a passenger will use these and not be distracting. Very far from the truth.
JayBond: My favorite feature of my beat-up minivan is the radio-channel changer on my steering wheel. Fiddling with the dashboard radio dial is absolutely a distraction.
@Barbara, I would have to agree with you, I love being able to change channels and volume from my steering wheel. It allows for a much easier ride without having to look at the radio, especially if it is dark outside or raining/snowing.
Great write up Barbara. Hands free doesn't mean distraction free, especially if you're fumbling around looking for a good cassette to play in the deck! And for the record, I promise to not play Words with Friends at red lights. It just doesn't work.
Very nice piece, Barb. “Hands-free does not qualify as “safe.” If you take your eyes off the road, you are distracted. Distraction is what causes accidents. “. You've said it all. I encourage everybody to post that on their FB wall and tweet it for the world to read.
@Tim–A cassette?! Argh! I'm old enough to remember casettes…sigh.
Barbara, we all know TMI is “too much information” so I suggest a new acronym, TMT, Too much Tech. I think the Tesla also has side view, rear facing cameras that replace the low tech mirrors. Aside from the 17″ monitor with Internet, now every time a Tesla driver changes lanes, if he/she does not also continue the good practice of glancing over the shoulder prior to changing lanes, the tendency will be to depend on the monitor and if the Tesla driver is using a non Tesla vehicle, the retrained brain may neglect to make that extra glance for safety and potentially cause an accident. We talk about programming tech equipment, but in reality, the tetchy stuff is programming us. I have been programmed to use my iPad for mobile email, my smartphone for stock updates, and I don't leave home without my iPad, smartphone, and car keys because all my friends and professional contacts know they can now reach me wherever and whenever. This is a whole other subject in itself.
Since my primary job is writing, tablets and smartphones are just too small for typing and editing. But I'm wondering about people who aren't tied to their keyboards. Salesfolk–can you live without a PC? Other road warriors?
I think tablets should be more threatened by smartphones. As blasphemous (sp?) as it sounds, a phone and laptop/PC are a necessity; a tablet is nice to have.
Barbra, I assume you were kidding about reading a book on the steering wheel but, I've seen that many time on my hour long drive to work every day.
The thing that irritates me most is the thing that I believe happens most often. Traffic is heavy but cruising smoothly at speed, then the guy's cell phone in the car in front of me rings, he immediately knocks five MPH off his speed. When he eventually hangs up he speeds back up. And, most annoyingly, when you go around him while he is talking, he gets mad once he hangs up because now I'm “in his way”.
Grrr….
At least I didn't say 8-track!
Adeniji
I am all for the sophistication in the cars and Electronics is playing a very important role to enrich the driving comfort, security and protection against accidents.
But when it comes to the features which compromise the safety in terms of diverting the attention of the driver I think we nned to think twice.
You cannot put such features in the hands of the driver and then caution him not to use them while driving. So it is better not to have such features ( texting, hands free talking on mobiles etc) built into the cars. To use such features the driver should be forced to take his car off the road , stop the engine and the do whatever he wants.
A good part of PC sales over the past decades has come from feature-rich software and OS, which consume more and more memory and processor time. With the mobile platform, the trend for software seems to be to run lean and take up less hardware resources. This has probably made the market more complacent with legacy PC technology.
You are right but that is really a sincere costly asumption.
I agree with you on that
@Kevin: I have snuck a glance at a book at red lights (the one that was in front of my now-extinct local Boarders) but quickly gave up after missing the light turning green. (In the Boston area, people either lay on the horn or drive right over you.) That's another pet peeve I have–people on the cell not watching the stop lights. And I agree on the highway cell user–they either slow down or begin to swerve. I have personally found it impossible not to reach for my cell phone when it rings or indicates I have a text message, which is why, unless I am going to be in the car for an extended period of time, I set it on vibrate. So far, I have had no situation that couldn't wait a half hour, or until I pull over, to be resolved (thank goodness.)
Hi Barbara,
Reading at a stoplight is one thing, doing it at 70 MPH in traffic is another.
When putting on make-up and doing the big hair (I'm in Texas) at least a person is looking up (in the twisted-sideways rear view mirror).
Please, bring on the Google self driving cars!
Ariella,
Most people with more than 1 monitor know the truth… you still spend most of your time staring at ONE. You occasionally look at the second so technically, 1 would still do just fine. It is just convenient to not have to do more than change your gaze to see your 'less important' windows.
@pocharle
So would right-handed people put the main ones and the right and left-handed people have theirs on the left? Or maybe they follow traffic conventions and always put the main on the right except for in countries that drive on the left side of the road.
Absolutely right – when the cars can self-navigate, the other bells and whistles won't be issues anymore. Not sure I want to be on the read the first time the navigation sysrtem goes haywire though.
Diplay is always a concern. Some people prefer smaller sizes while others bigger size. I would love to have some tiny projector that can display big or small size anywhere, perhaps into the air!
I don't see any smartphone taking the place of PC. Considering the enterprise use, smartphones can not function as PC, though when talking about HTML browsing, video streaming, GPS navigation, and third party applications especially for social networking, we can be talking of smartphone but for enterprise use, smartphone is nothing.
I think the left to right sequence of important to less important screens makes the most sense (at least in the US). I can vouch for that one.
@pocharle well, that would fit with how we read English, left to right. Perhaps someone can look into how people arrange their screens in countries that read languages right to left.