Economic growth is expected to continue in the United States throughout the remainder of 2013, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in their spring 2013 Semiannual Economic Forecast. Expectations for the remainder of 2013 continue to be positive in both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors.
These projections are part of the forecast issued by the Business Survey Committee of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released in December. The forecast was updated to reflect information through April.
“This is very broad-based growth,” said Bradley J. Holcomb, CPSM, CPSD, chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. “Seventeen of the 18 sectors we cover have forecast growth for their industry. The one slight decline is transportation equipment, which includes aircraft, which might be impacted by cuts in defense spending.”
Sixty-six percent of respondents from the panel of manufacturing supply management executives predict their revenues will be 9.9 percent greater in 2013 compared to 2012, 12 percent expect a 14.6 percent decline, and 22 percent foresee no change. This yields an overall average expectation of 4.8 percent revenue growth among manufacturers in 2013, which is a slight increase of 0.2 percentage point from December 2012 when the panel predicted a 4.6 percent increase in 2013 revenues, reports the ISM.
With operating capacity at 80.2 percent, an expected capital expenditure increase of 9.1 percent, prices paid for raw material expected to increase a modest 0.9 percent from now through the end of 2013, and employment expected to grow only 0.9 percent for the balance of 2013, manufacturers are positioned to grow revenues while containing costs through the remainder of the year. "With 17 out of 18 industries within the manufacturing sector predicting growth in 2013 over 2012, U.S. manufacturing continues to demonstrate its broad-based strength, efficiency and leadership in the world economy," said Holcomb.
The 17 industries reporting expectations of growth in revenue for 2013 — listed in order — are: Wood Products; Furniture & Related Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Printing & Related Support Activities; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Paper Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Textile Mills; Computer & Electronic Products; Machinery; Primary Metals; Chemical Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; and Fabricated Metal Products.
“There are still unpredictable headwinds such as sequestration,” Holcomb added, “but manufacturing seems to have weathered the storm and is showing its leadership in the world economy.”