After a 6 percent drop in IC unit shipments in 2019 and an 8 percent increase in 2020, IC Insights forecasts a huge 21 percent jump in chip unit shipments this year. Unit shipments in 2021 are forecast to reach 391.2 billion, more than 11x the 34.1 billion units shipped over 30 years ago in 1990.
The 2020-2025 unit volume CAGR is forecast to be 11 percent, five points more than the unit CAGR from 2015-2020.
A 21 percent jump would be the largest increase in chip unit shipments since the boom year of 2010.
When ignoring the 5-year CAGR time periods with abnormally high or low endpoints, IC Insights believes that the long-term outlook for IC unit shipments is for a CAGR of 7 percent-8 percent, just below its 30-year rate of 9 percent.
Illustrating how rare a drop in chip shipments is, 2019 was only the fifth time in the history of the IC industry that IC unit volumes declined (the previous four years were 1985, 2001, 2009, and 2012) and there have never been two consecutive years of declining unit shipments.
In 2008, underlying demand for chips plummeted as the global economic recession hit with full force in the second half of the year.
The CAGR trend line for chip unit volume from mid-2008 through 2015 was reduced to 6 percent from the historical CAGR of 9 percent. One of the primary reasons for this was that worldwide GDP increased at an average of only 2.1 percent over this 8-year period. Moreover, even with a 6 percent decline in IC unit shipments in 2019, the expected 2016-2021 quarterly chip unit volume shipment trend line is forecast to increase 3 percentage points to 9 percent, spurred by the expected huge 21 percent jump in chip unit shipments in 2021.
For more information contact Bill McClean, president at IC Insights. Phone: +1-480-348-1133 email: email@example.com