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Ocean spot rates ex-China went unchanged this week during the Lunar New Year (LNY) manufacturing pause. Without much of a climb before LNY, expectations are that rates should not increase significantly just after the holiday either.
Along with stable rates, the number of ships waiting for a spot at LA/Long Beach has fallen nearly 30% since early January to fewer than 80 vessels. Though the backlog is still daunting, this development is a welcome first hint of recovery from disruptions that have impacted US importers and exporters.
US lawmakers and regulators are continuing with steps to ease some of these pain points made worse during the pandemic. Though not targeting ocean rates directly yet, these moves aim to ensure US exports do not get bumped in favor of empty containers and fair practices in detention and demurrage fees.
Meanwhile, spiking marine fuel prices are likely to be a factor that will keep upward pressure on ocean rates even once volumes and demand ease.
Finally, Canadian truckers protesting the government’s vaccine mandate blocked traffic on a major Canada-US bridge in Detroit early this week. The demonstration is related to the larger vaccine mandate protests taking part in Ottawa, and poses a threat to the US automotive industry. Plans for a similar US trucker protest in California and elsewhere are reportedly gaining momentum as well.
Key insights:
- Ex-China ocean rates went unchanged during the Lunar New Year manufacturing pause. Without much of a climb before LNY, expectations are that rates should not increase significantly just after either.
- The number of ships waiting outside LA/LB has dropped 28% since January – a hopeful first sign of recovery.
- Canadian truckers are disrupting cross-border trade near Detroit in protest of vaccine mandates, with reports that US truckers are planning a similar demonstration.
Asia-US rates:
- Asia-US West Coast prices (FBX01 Daily) were steady at $15,218/FEU. This rate is 182% higher than the same time last year.
- Asia-US East Coast prices (FBX03 Daily) also went unchanged at $16,638/FEU, and are 203% higher than rates for this week last year.
